Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
